Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 0 – Indianapolis Colts 17

(6:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to IND 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.08 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model