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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:42) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 1-J.Downs to MIA 36 for 6 yards (9-I.Melifonwu).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.37 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -1.02 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model