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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:03) 3-S.Shrader 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model