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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 3-S.Shrader 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP