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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Miami Dolphins
4th & 6 at the 31
Miami Dolphins 0 – Indianapolis Colts 23
What Actually Happened
(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 80-T.Conner.
The Three Options
GO
+0.81 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
- 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP
KICK
+0.78 EP
- 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
- 20% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
