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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 17-D.Jones right guard to MIA 16 for 1 yard (15-Ja.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.85 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model