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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 11

Miami Dolphins 0 – Indianapolis Colts 30

What Actually Happened

(6:29) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 28-D.Achane for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model