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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 16-W.Reichard 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model