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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to MIN 13, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-M.Price to MIN 13 for no gain (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.17 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model