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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:28) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.89 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model