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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 39-J.Romo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.10 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP