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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Atlanta Falcons 12

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 9-J.McCarthy up the middle to MIN 41 for 1 yard (90-D.Onyemata).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.15 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model