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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 87

Atlanta Falcons 12 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(:10) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to MIN 42, Center-49-L.McCullough. 4-M.Price to MIN 48 for 6 yards (23-D.Hellams; 42-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 87, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 45, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model