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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 39-J.Romo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.77 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP