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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 38-C.Ryland 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.82 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model