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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 27 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to CAR 49 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model