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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 9 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.76 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 5, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model