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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 22 – Arizona Cardinals 27

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at ARI 46 for -8 yards (93-C.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.25 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EP