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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 9

Carolina Panthers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:53) 10-R.Fitzgerald 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model