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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to BAL 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-9-G.Delpit.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model