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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:33) 25-A.Szmyt 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.10 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model