4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model