4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(:10) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.19 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -2.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model