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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 81-D.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 2, worth +0.50 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model