4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 18

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(5:08) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 19-C.Tillman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.21 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT +0.44 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model