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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 11-J.Stout punts 58 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.94 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model