Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(2:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.56 EP
74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model