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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-I.Bond to CLE 28 for no gain (38-K.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model