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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 45

Denver Broncos 28 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 37 yards to IND 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.05 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.70 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP