4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 24

Denver Broncos 28 – Indianapolis Colts 26

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model