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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 3-S.Shrader 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.58 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model