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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 37

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 6-J.Slye 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model