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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.13 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 3, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.18 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP