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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 3 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to LA 5, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-80-B.Oliver.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model