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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 90

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to TEN 43, Center-47-A.Ward. 17-C.Dike for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TEN-33-C.Gray, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at LA 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.56 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 47, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model