Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(12:13) 3-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-X.Smith to LA 28 for 14 yards (84-G.Helm).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.55 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model