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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 39

Tennessee Titans 13 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 6-J.Slye 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.30 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model