Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 16 – Los Angeles Rams 20

(:11) 3-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to LA 26, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.76 EP
53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model