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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 17-C.Dike to TEN 27 for 21 yards (56-S.Dolac).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.99 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model