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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NYG 19, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model