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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 26

Dallas Cowboys 17 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 17-B.Aubrey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model