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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 32

New York Giants 23 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 17-W.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.59 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model