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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 64

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to NYG 23, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 31 for 8 yards (2-J.Thomas; 89-B.Spann-Ford).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.25 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 22, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model