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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(6:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to PHI 24 for 18 yards (24-A.Mukuba) [53-Z.Baun].

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model