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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt right guard to KC 35 for -1 yards (98-J.Carter, 3-N.Smith). FUMBLES (3-N.Smith), and recovers at KC 35.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.19 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model