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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 14-M.Araiza punts 69 yards to PHI 2, Center-41-J.Winchester. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 16 for 14 yards (41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.71 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model