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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to KC 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.15 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP