Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 6

(1:32) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to SF 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.48 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model