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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 6 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 18-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model