Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 9

(9:17) 32-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to SF 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 9-S.Moore ran ob at SF 19 for 1 yard.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.30 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model